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Open Net Worth Docs

Retirement and FIRE outlookBeta

What this solves

The Outlook sub-tab (inside Plan) projects your financial future: at what age your savings rate lets you retire, the odds your money lasts under thousands of simulated market paths, and how a life event or extra income stream changes that picture.

In beta: real and fully wired — a permanent Plan sub-tab, not a flag or placeholder — but newer and less battle-tested than the ledger or budgeting. Treat its output as a planning aid, not a number to act on without double-checking.

Explore your outlook

  1. Open Plan → Outlook.
  2. The fan chart shows a range of simulated outcomes for your net worth, given income, expenses, and an assumed return and volatility.
  3. Drag the retirement-age handle to see how retiring earlier/later changes your odds — the headline recomputes fully on release.
  4. Add a life event or recurring income stream to see its effect.
  5. Save a scenario by name to compare against your baseline.
  6. Open FIRE settings to adjust return, withdrawal rate, or savings assumptions.

What Lucius can do here

  • Calculate your FIRE number, progress, and projected retirement age; answer “am I on track?” including what-if variants with overridden assumptions.
  • Run a full Monte Carlo simulation and summarize the median outcome, downside case, and probability of success.

Things that trip people up

  • A known rough edge: dragging the retirement-age handle quickly can briefly show a headline that hasn’t caught up — it settles on release.
  • A Monte Carlo simulation is a distribution, not a prediction — “probability of success” is the share of simulated paths that didn’t run out of money under your assumed return and volatility; a different assumption set gives a different answer.
  • Unvested equity is excluded from every projection here, same as net worth.
  • Everything reads from your Profile settings — an outdated profile produces an outdated projection.